Expected Macroeconomic Environment

According to expert opinion the world economy will continue to recover only very slowly from the repercussions of the financial crisis. There was indeed a fundamentally positive trend but the dynamics of the development are predicted to be lower this year and in the coming year than they were in the second half of 2009. This applies above all to the industrialized countries. The reason for this is that the post-crisis economic stimulus packages have come to an end and therefore important incentives for a quick recovery have been removed.

For Germany experts are working on the assumption that the Gross Domestic Product in real terms will increase by 1.5 per cent in 2010 and by 1.4 per cent in 2011. In the medium term prospects for the German economy have deteriorated due to the financial crisis. Not until 2013 is the Gross Domestic Product expected to return to the level of 2008 again.

In the USA experts think that the current upswing will also slow down substantially in comparison with the powerful growth in the second half of 2009. The forecast is for a growth rate of 2.8 per cent in the current year and around 2 per cent in the year 2011.

Europe will be particularly slow in leaving the repercussions of the crisis behind. The economic institutes are expecting a growth rate of as little as 0.9 per cent in the year 2010. In 2011 the growth rate is not expected to be much higher, either.

In the threshold countries, on the other hand, development will continue to be dynamic. On the whole world trade is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and by 2.7 per cent in 2011.

As before the leading economic research institutes consider the risks for the further economic development worldwide to be high. This danger is exacerbated by the growing concern about the finances of individual states. The situation in the banking sector also remains difficult. This might have a negative impact both on the development at the international financial markets and in the real economy.